24.95% percent quarterly performance for Cleveland-Cliffs Inc (CLF) is not indicative of the underlying story

Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (NYSE: CLF) slipped 1.77% on Friday to close at $13.56, even as the stock has rallied 24.95% over the past quarter. That short-term surge, however, doesn’t fully reflect the company’s mixed fundamentals and evolving risk profile. With a 52-week range of $5.63 to $14.51 and rising trading activity, CLF’s setup continues to blend improving momentum with lingering operational and earnings pressures.

Snapshot: Scale, valuation, and recent prints

• Market capitalization: approximately $6.59 billion
• Shares outstanding: about 494.68 million; public float near 485.52 million
• Price-to-sales (TTM): 0.36
• Sales (TTM): roughly $19,185 million; net income (TTM): about -$754 million
• Most recent quarter revenue: approximately $4,934 million; net income: around -$483 million

Despite the strong quarterly share-price performance, the company is still contending with negative trailing earnings and a discounted sales multiple that suggests investors remain cautious on profitability normalization and cycle risk.

Earnings and outlook: Progress, but not yet out of the woods

In the fiscal report dated 9/30/2024, Cleveland-Cliffs posted EPS of -0.33 versus a -0.31 consensus, a miss of $0.02. Trailing twelve-month diluted EPS stands at -3.41, with the next quarter’s EPS anticipated around -0.45. Looking one year out, forecasts imply a potential swing toward a modest positive EPS of about 0.20, though execution and market conditions will be critical. The company’s reported average yearly EPS change of -197.50% underscores how volatile results have been. Near-term, the path from negative to positive earnings remains the key debate underpinning valuation.

Ownership and insider activity

• Insider ownership: approximately 1.85%
• Institutional ownership: approximately 77.12%

Insider transactions have included sales on May 23, 2025. The EVP, Chief Legal Admin & Secretary sold 120,000 shares at around $6.85, a transaction of roughly $822,036, and now holds about 492,249 shares. Another officer transaction on the same day reflected similar size and pricing. While single transactions do not define a trend, such activity often prompts investors to scrutinize management’s view of valuation and near-term prospects in conjunction with broader fundamentals.

Liquidity and balance sheet indicators

CLF’s quick ratio stood at 0.61 in the most recent quarter, indicating a tighter near-term liquidity position. While that can be manageable for a scaled operator in a capital-intensive industry, it highlights the importance of disciplined working capital management, cost controls, and stable cash generation, especially if market conditions soften.

Momentum and trading dynamics

• Volume: recent five-day trading volume around 52.03 million versus 25.54 million in a comparable prior period
• Stochastic %D (9-day): approximately 52.88%
• Raw stochastic averages: roughly 86.58% over the past 100 days versus about 52.17% in the past two weeks
• Historical volatility: 0.71 (14 days) versus 0.52 (100 days)
• 50-day moving average: $11.62; 200-day moving average: $9.63

Momentum has improved significantly versus longer-term baselines, with price action trending above both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. That said, higher recent volatility relative to the 100-day window and a middling stochastic reading point to a market that remains active and tactical rather than firmly trend-locked.

Technically, the stock faces near-term resistance around $13.50, $13.69, and $13.88. On the downside, support levels appear near $13.12, $12.93, and $12.74. Traders may focus on whether shares can sustain levels above the first resistance band to confirm momentum, while investors will watch for constructive pullbacks that hold support and align with improving fundamentals.

Why the 24.95% quarterly pop isn’t the whole story

The quarter’s strong price performance reflects improving sentiment and possibly better-than-feared macro and industry dynamics. Still, the company is navigating negative trailing earnings, a modest quick ratio, and a recent EPS miss. Ownership patterns remain largely institutional, and insider sales warrant context against long-term strategy and compensation calendars. In short, the rebound captures momentum and a favorable setup versus recent history, but the core investment case likely hinges on visible earnings inflection, stable margins, and prudent balance sheet management.

Bottom line

Cleveland-Cliffs’ recent rally is notable, but investors should consider the full mosaic: liquidity, earnings trajectory, ownership signals, and technical levels. Sustaining gains will depend on converting operational scale into consistent, positive earnings and cash flow. Until that becomes clearer, the 24.95% quarterly performance is best viewed as a starting point for deeper analysis rather than a definitive verdict on the company’s longer-term outlook.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.