Almonty Faces Key Liquidity Event as Share Restrictions Expire

Almonty Industries Inc. enters a pivotal liquidity moment as lock-up provisions on a sizable tranche of securities issued in December expire. Despite the potential for added supply, the shares have recently climbed more than 9% and continue to trade well above the placement price. The immediate test is whether the market can absorb the newly tradable securities without sparking notable selling pressure.

From Developer to Producer

Investor sentiment has been buoyed by a structural change in the company’s profile. With commercial production at the Sangdong tungsten mine commencing in mid-December, Almonty has transitioned from a developer to a producer. A long-term offtake agreement with Sumitomo Electric Industries, effective January 1, 2026, underpins visibility into future revenues.

The December capital raise, completed on the 10th of that month, brought in $129.4 million to support the ramp-up at Sangdong. This financial reinforcement aligns with Almonty’s new phase as an operator with contracted sales to a major industrial counterparty.

What’s Unlocking Today

The expiring restrictions cover options, restricted stock units (RSUs), and common shares that were issued to management and partners in connection with the December financing. This is a more targeted unlocking compared to the broader release seen in November.

Importantly, the stock trades at a significant premium to the financing level, reflecting confidence that the company’s operational milestones and commercial arrangements can help the market digest the additional float.

Key lock-up details

• Securities unlocked: Options, RSUs, and common shares
• Placement price: $6.25 per share
• Recent trading level: Approximately $9.61
• Premium to placement: Roughly 57%

Implications for the Stock

Near term, the balance between supply from unlocked securities and buying interest will likely drive volatility. Elevated trading volumes could help absorb sales if holders choose to monetize gains, while the company’s shift to production and contracted offtake provides a counterweight to selling pressure. Longer term, execution at Sangdong—especially the pace and consistency of the ramp-up—remains the central determinant of value.

Management and Shareholder Updates

To support the next phase of growth, Almonty appointed Guillaume Wiesenbach de Lamaziere as Chief Development Officer on January 6. He brings extensive capital markets experience and is tasked with securing financing for expansion initiatives, including the Montana tungsten project.

Separately, Deutsche Rohstoff AG disclosed that its ownership has fallen below the 10% threshold, largely due to dilution following the December capital increase rather than material market selling. Prior to the financing, it held approximately 20.4 million shares and CDIs, representing about an 8.67% undiluted interest.

Performance, Scale, and Coverage

Almonty’s 2025 share performance has been exceptional, with gains exceeding 840%. The company’s market capitalization is now around CAD 3.05 billion (approximately USD 2.47 billion). Trading activity has remained robust, with recent daily volume near 6.6 million shares versus an average of roughly 2.9 million.

Analysts tracking the stock cite a consensus price target of $11.00 per share, implying potential upside of about 14% from recent levels. Shares are trading near the top of their 52-week range of $1.38 to $10.68.

Investment Context and Next Catalysts

The core thesis centers on Almonty’s role in Western supply chains for critical minerals. The start of commercial production and the secured offtake agreement provide a clearer path to predictable revenue and earnings. Whether the rally extends toward analyst targets will hinge on how the market assimilates the newly unlocked securities and on near-term operating updates from South Korea regarding Sangdong’s production ramp.

Key items to watch:

• Liquidity absorption: Price action and volumes as lock-ups expire
• Operational progress: Throughput, grades, recoveries, and unit costs at Sangdong
• Financing strategy: Capital plans for expansion, including the Montana project
• Market backdrop: Tungsten pricing and demand trends across end markets

Bottom line: The expiration of share restrictions presents a near-term test of demand, but Almonty’s transition to production and contracted sales provide a firmer foundation than in prior phases. Upcoming operational disclosures will be crucial in confirming the trajectory of the ramp and the durability of recent share price gains.