Samsung forecasts record $80 bn quarterly profit – What’s fuelling the jump?

Samsung expects a blockbuster third quarter, projecting revenue to surge 127% year-over-year to 195 trillion Korean won and estimating operating profit at around $80 billion for the July–September period. If realized, it would extend the company’s streak of record operating profits to a fourth consecutive quarter, underscoring how the AI-driven chip boom is reshaping its business.

The upbeat outlook follows a strong second quarter in which Samsung posted record revenue of 171.5 trillion won and record operating profit of 89.5 trillion won. The momentum has been powered by swelling demand for advanced memory used in AI servers and next-generation data centers.

What’s driving the surge?

Artificial intelligence has triggered a rapid build-out of data center infrastructure, straining global chip supply and lifting prices for DRAM and NAND. Samsung has benefitted directly: AI server demand has pushed memory shipments and pricing higher, leading to all-time highs in memory revenue. The company has highlighted AI as the core engine of growth for its semiconductor division, which historically accounts for a significant share of group earnings.

HBM and memory leadership race

High-bandwidth memory (HBM), a critical component for training and running large AI models, is a particular bright spot. Industry estimates suggest Samsung’s HBM bit shipments jumped by close to 50% quarter-over-quarter in Q3. While rival SK Hynix currently holds the lead in key AI memory segments, Samsung’s capacity additions and product roadmap signal intensifying competition for share in the HBM market through 2025 and beyond.

Not all divisions are in the black

The boom in memory is masking pockets of weakness elsewhere. Samsung’s mobile business is expected to have posted a loss of more than $1 billion in the third quarter, a wider setback than anticipated. Its foundry (contract chipmaking) unit also faces pressure from fixed costs and lower utilization rates, which are likely to weigh on profitability until customer pipelines deepen and utilization normalizes.

Q3 preview and what to watch

Samsung plans to release detailed third-quarter results on October 29. Key metrics to watch include:

• Memory average selling prices and mix shift toward higher-value HBM and premium DRAM
• Utilization trends in foundry and any signs of customer ramp-ups
• Mobile profitability trajectory and product mix shifts across flagship and mid-tier devices
• Capex plans and guidance on supply-demand balance into 2025

Doubling down on AI infrastructure

Samsung believes AI infrastructure investment will continue to outpace chip supply growth, and it already expects the chip crunch to persist through 2028. Reflecting that conviction, the company announced a $1 billion investment in Helix, an AI infrastructure platform, positioning itself as a founding investor alongside global partners including KKR, the Kuwait Investment Authority, NVIDIA, and Vistra.

The strategy goes beyond selling components. Samsung is aligning with an ecosystem that spans power generation, advanced cooling, semiconductors, and financing—aiming to participate in business models such as GPU-as-a-Service (GPUaaS), Sovereign AI, and colocation. The goal: evolve from a traditional hardware supplier to a system-level architect in the global AI infrastructure landscape, leveraging the company’s strengths in memory, storage, and advanced packaging to capture value higher up the stack.

Expanding AI partnerships

Samsung also deepened its ties with the broader AI community by partnering with French startup Mistral AI, helping the company raise 3 billion euros in a recent funding round. The collaboration underscores Samsung’s multi-pronged approach to AI—combining investments, partnerships, and product innovation to lock in long-term demand for its chips and solutions.

The bottom line

Samsung’s forecast points to a transformative phase powered by AI infrastructure spending and the premiumization of memory products, particularly HBM. While headwinds in mobile and foundry remain, the semiconductor cycle and the company’s strategic bets in AI ecosystems are setting the stage for sustained growth. With full Q3 results due on October 29, investors will be looking for confirmation that Samsung can turn its current chip upcycle into durable, multi-year leadership across both components and AI infrastructure services.