Stocks Drift as Focus Turns From Nvidia to Economy: Markets Wrap

US stock futures were flat on Thursday as attention shifted from Nvidia’s closely watched outlook to a run of economic data that could influence the path of interest rates. S&P 500 contracts pointed to the benchmark holding near a record, while Europe’s Stoxx 600 edged lower. Nvidia slipped in premarket trading after its sales guidance undershot the market’s loftiest hopes, joining Tesla as the only decliners among the so-called Magnificent Seven.

In bonds, the 30-year Treasury yield dipped to about 4.91%, easing some pressure on long-dated debt. European sovereigns were mixed, with French notes rebounding. The dollar weakened for a third session.

Investors parsed Nvidia’s results for clues on the durability of the artificial intelligence boom that has powered equity gains in 2025. While the company projected a slower pace after two years of explosive AI-driven demand, management emphasized that appetite remains strong. As one strategist put it, after back-to-back years of triple-digit growth, the expansion is naturally normalizing—yet still robust enough to support the broader trend.

Policy and Data Back in Focus

With earnings season effectively winding down, the market’s gaze is returning to the Federal Reserve’s upcoming rate decision. Traders are also watching political developments around potential efforts to reshape the central bank’s policy committee.

On the data front, initial jobless claims and revised second-quarter GDP arrive Thursday. Economists expect the GDP update to show consumer spending improving to a moderate pace after a sluggish start to the year. On Friday, the core PCE price index—the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge—is forecast to tick higher, underscoring the challenge of cooling prices without further weakening a labor market that has shown signs of softening.

Interest-rate swaps imply roughly an 85% chance of a quarter-point cut in September, with at least three more reductions discounted by June of next year. Some managers caution that the market may be too aggressive in its rate-cut assumptions; a sturdier-than-expected jobs backdrop could force investors to trim those bets.

Asia and Cross-Border Flows

Japan’s two-year government bond auction drew softer demand than the 12-month average, reflecting caution that the Bank of Japan could lift rates again this year. Meanwhile, mainland Chinese investors sold a record HK$20.4 billion of Hong Kong-listed equities via trading links, suggesting a rotation back to onshore markets amid a rapid rally there.

Corporate Highlights

• Snowflake jumped after boosting its full-year product revenue outlook and topping estimates.
• Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce beat expectations on strength in domestic retail banking, extending a two-year streak of earnings beats.
• Toronto-Dominion Bank reported better-than-expected results, helped by its Canadian banking unit as it seeks to refocus growth.
• Pernod Ricard guided to an early-year sales decline in its next fiscal period, citing ongoing trade frictions in key markets.
• Berkshire Hathaway increased stakes in Japanese trading houses Mitsubishi and Mitsui, lifting shares across the sector.
• HP issued an in-line profit outlook, though investors remain wary of economic uncertainty and potential trade-related costs.
• CrowdStrike slipped after strong results were overshadowed by a narrow miss in its current-quarter sales guidance.

Market Snapshot

• Equities: S&P 500 futures little changed; Nasdaq 100 futures down about 0.2%; Dow futures up roughly 0.1%; Stoxx Europe 600 down around 0.3%; MSCI World up near 0.2%.
• Currencies: A broad dollar index fell 0.3%. The euro rose to about $1.1670; the British pound to $1.3519; the Japanese yen strengthened to roughly 146.81 per dollar.
• Cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin gained 0.5% to about $112,959; Ether added 0.1% to roughly $4,602.
• Bonds: 10-year US Treasury yield held near 4.23%; Germany’s 10-year yield edged up to about 2.71%; UK 10-year was steady near 4.73%.
• Commodities: WTI crude was little changed; spot gold rose 0.2% to around $3,405 an ounce.

Bottom line: With Nvidia’s print absorbed and earnings season largely complete, the next leg for markets likely hinges on how growth and inflation data reshape expectations for the Fed. For now, stocks are treading water near highs as investors weigh resilient demand against a still-elevated rate backdrop.