Lango’s “#1 Stock to Buy Before OpenAI’s Mega-IPO” – Stock Gumshoe

A new pitch touts the chance to “own OpenAI before its $1 trillion IPO,” with the promise of getting in for less than $10 and riding what’s billed as the biggest investing story of the year. The teaser flows from a familiar place: a technology-growth newsletter dangling a “secret” stock that purportedly surges when OpenAI lists.

The pitch vs. reality

Big AI numbers set the tone—trillions in future economic value, massive gains already harvested in chip leaders—and then a leap: that OpenAI’s eventual IPO will mint new millionaires and shatter Silicon Valley records. The marketing also leans on an iconic venture-capital tale: Naspers’ tiny 2001 check into Tencent that swelled into one of history’s greatest investments.

But that comparison is misleading. Naspers bought into a true early-stage startup. OpenAI, by contrast, is already a global headline act with a private valuation widely pegged between roughly $500 billion and $1 trillion. Starting that high radically limits the magnitude of future percentage gains. Could an IPO double or triple? Maybe. Could it 10X? Possible but unlikely. Those returns can move a portfolio, but they’re not the same as getting in at sub-$100 million valuations like Naspers did.

Two paths to “own OpenAI”

The teaser first spotlights SoftBank (SFTBY). It’s a publicly traded holding company believed to own a large OpenAI stake, reportedly in the low double digits by percentage. If OpenAI lists at a sky-high valuation, SoftBank’s position would likely re-rate higher. For a conglomerate with a massive portfolio, the move may be meaningful but not transformational.

The second, “sexier” play teased under $10 looks like SuRo Capital (SSSS), a publicly traded venture fund known for pre-IPO stakes (it previously held Facebook, Twitter, and Palantir before those debuts). The idea: buy SSSS at a discount to the value of its private portfolio and get leveraged exposure to OpenAI’s IPO buzz.

What history suggests

SuRo has had occasional hot streaks tied to upcoming IPOs—then cooled off once lockups expired or the hype faded. Over the long run, SSSS has lagged broad indexes despite owning some big winners pre-IPO. In other words, it has often behaved like a “trading sardine”: excitement builds into a headline event, then dissipates. If OpenAI follows the pattern of Facebook, Twitter, and Palantir, SSSS could pop into the IPO—and then give back gains afterward.

SuRo’s OpenAI exposure and the back-of-the-envelope math

• Initial allocation: SuRo invested about $17.5 million into OpenAI in late 2024 via a single-stock special-purpose vehicle (with management and incentive fees at the SPV level).
• Reported value: By year-end, SuRo marked that position to roughly $42.2 million, reflecting OpenAI’s last known funding round.
• Valuation drift: If OpenAI’s implied valuation later rose from roughly $500 billion to about $850 billion, SuRo’s look-through value might be nearer $70 million, all else equal.
• NAV context: SuRo’s net asset value at December 31 was about $205 million. A step-up in OpenAI marks could imply a pro forma NAV around the low-$230 millions (simplified, not including other changes).
• Share count: With roughly 25.4 million shares outstanding, that ballparks NAV per share a touch above $9 before any further adjustments.
• Other holdings: Whoop, a sizable position, recently raised new capital at a higher valuation, which could add further to NAV—though precise impacts depend on SuRo’s carrying value and timing.
• Market price: With shares trading around the low double digits, SSSS doesn’t look obviously cheap unless you assume OpenAI’s IPO lands much higher than recent private marks—and that the market awards SuRo a premium into the listing.

Could a soaring OpenAI valuation propel SSSS materially higher? Yes—especially into headlines. But based on its history, the peak may coincide with the IPO window rather than with long-term portfolio value compounding.

Other indirect exposure options

Microsoft reportedly owns a very large stake in OpenAI, though its sheer size dilutes the impact on MSFT’s valuation. SoftBank’s ownership is more concentrated and could move the needle more. Some funds also hold OpenAI stakes, including certain venture and thematic vehicles, but these can involve premiums to net asset value, liquidity gates, or complex fee structures. Always verify position sizes, valuation marks, and redemption terms.

OpenAI’s numbers in context

OpenAI is spending aggressively and doesn’t project profitability for years. It has cited roughly $25 billion in annualized recurring revenue from subscriptions and related products, supporting private valuations that imply roughly 35X sales. Growth has been rapid, but public markets now award such rich multiples to only a handful of very large, profitable companies. Recent examples trading north of 20X sales include Broadcom (near the low-20s), Palantir (much higher), Arm (mid-30s), and AppLovin (mid-20s). All are profitable, with high gross margins and clear operating leverage—benchmarks OpenAI still needs to demonstrate at scale.

Bottom line

If you’re chasing the pre-IPO sizzle, SSSS could offer short-term torque into an OpenAI listing—but history argues for nimble timing. SoftBank offers a steadier, more diversified route but comes with its own portfolio complexities. The bigger picture: OpenAI is already one of the world’s most widely discussed private companies at a towering valuation. That starting point lowers the odds of life-changing, Naspers–Tencent-style returns. Position size, time horizon, and discipline around hype-driven run-ups matter far more here than secret-ticker mystique.