Dublin’s private sector growth slows but jobs rise in third quarter

Dublin’s private sector kept expanding over the summer, though momentum cooled compared with earlier in the year. The headline Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for the capital registered 50.8 in the third quarter of 2025, down from 52.2 in the previous quarter and the softest rate of expansion since late 2022. A reading above 50 signals growth. Despite the slowdown, activity stayed in positive territory, underscoring underlying resilience amid global uncertainty. Across the rest of Ireland, the PMI also eased but remained slightly stronger at 51.4.

Key snapshots

• Dublin headline PMI: 50.8 (Q3 2025), down from 52.2 (Q2)
• Rest of Ireland headline PMI: 51.4
• Weakest expansion in Dublin since late 2022, but still above the 50 growth threshold

Mixed sector performance

Performance varied across industries in the capital:

• Manufacturing: 52.2 — modest growth continued
• Construction: 50.6 — slight increase in output
• Services: 49.4 — first contraction since early 2021

Outside Dublin, industry trends diverged:

• Manufacturing: 51.9 — growth maintained
• Services: 51.8 — continued expansion
• Construction: 47.5 — output slipped back into decline

Demand stabilises as new orders return to growth

After contracting in the previous quarter, new business in Dublin improved, with the New Orders Index rising to 51.0. This shift suggests demand is stabilising, aided by easing concerns around global trade and a more predictable policy backdrop. The rest of Ireland also saw a modest uplift, with new orders at 50.8.

Employment strengthens

Hiring remained a bright spot. Dublin’s Employment Index advanced to 52.3 from 51.3, marking the fastest pace of job creation since the same period last year. Staffing levels in the capital grew more quickly than elsewhere, where the index edged down to 51.6. The willingness of firms to add headcount, even as overall growth softened, points to confidence in medium-term demand.

Interpreting the slowdown

The latest data indicate a soft patch rather than a downturn. The services dip weighed on the headline number, but growth in manufacturing and a steady construction reading helped keep the overall index above 50. The return to growth in new orders is particularly encouraging and could support activity into the final quarter, especially as greater clarity around international trade policies reduces some uncertainty for exporters and service providers.

Outlook

• Growth: Likely to remain modest but positive if new orders continue to firm.
• Jobs: Recruitment momentum suggests firms anticipate stable or improving demand.
• Sectors to watch: Services for signs of a rebound; construction for confirmation that output can hold above 50; manufacturing for sustained external demand.

Overall, the PMI points to an economy still expanding, albeit more cautiously. While services have softened, continued manufacturing growth, stabilising demand, and rising employment suggest Dublin’s private sector remains on a steady footing heading into the final months of 2025.