Manhattan’s luxury housing market is roaring back toward 2016 peak…

After a turbulent decade of overbuilding, correction, and recovery, Manhattan’s top-tier housing market is regaining its mid-2010s momentum. This time, the upswing looks rooted in genuine demand and financial strength rather than a surge of speculative supply.

Fresh figures show the borough’s priciest properties are nearing their 2016 benchmarks. By the end of last year, the median price for a luxury home—defined as the top 10% of the market—reached $6.39 million. That’s still just shy of the last peak, but it represents an increase of more than 6% from the prior year, underscoring a clear resurgence at the high end.

Sales activity is echoing the price gains. Approximately 1,143 high-end homes changed hands over the year, a total that nearly matches the volume seen in 2016 and marks a robust double-digit jump from the previous year—an impressive turnaround following years of pandemic disruption and elevated borrowing costs.

What’s different now is what’s driving the market. According to appraisal analysis associated with a new report from Douglas Elliman, less than half of today’s price strength can be chalked up to limited inventory. The larger forces are a sturdier local economy and a revived Wall Street bonus cycle—signals that wealth-generated purchasing power is doing more of the heavy lifting than scarcity alone.

That distinction sets this phase apart from the mid-2010s surge, when pricing was heavily influenced by a wave of newly built towers offering expansive units at eye-watering numbers. Over the past decade, much of that excess was absorbed, and few comparable developments followed. The result: a leaner pipeline and a market that appears tighter yet more stable.

The high end also proved notably resilient in the recent downturn. While prices fell sharply in the early 2020s—amid outmigration, remote-work uncertainty, and broader volatility—luxury listings bounced back faster than the general market. Affluent buyers, less dependent on financing, were better shielded from interest-rate swings and more willing to move when confidence returned.

Even so, the rebound has been far from uniform. Manhattan’s overall median sale price now sits above 2016 levels, but performance varies widely by neighborhood and property type:

• Downtown: Condo prices remain below their last peak, while co-ops in similar locations have quietly posted gains.
• Greenwich Village: Condo pricing saw some of the most pronounced declines over the decade.
• Soho and Tribeca: Managed modest gains, reflecting steady, if selective, demand.
• Chelsea: Lagged across both condos and co-ops, suggesting a slower recovery relative to peers.
• East Side: A mixed picture—Upper East Side condos have surged, while Carnegie Hill units have slipped.

One notable shift: luxury co-ops have broadly outperformed condos in recent years. That doesn’t necessarily mean co-ops have become the hot new status buy; rather, it signals steadier pricing dynamics and a return to fundamentals after the spectacle of the last boom.

All told, Manhattan’s luxury market looks less inflated and more grounded than it did a decade ago. With real economic drivers—bonuses, cash-ready buyers, and a more disciplined development pipeline—supporting demand, the sector is edging back toward its previous highs with a sturdier foundation. If current trends hold, the city’s most exclusive addresses could soon revisit, or even surpass, their 2016 zenith—this time with more staying power.