Nigeria’s oil revival runs into a decade-long talent drain

Capital is returning to Nigeria’s oil and gas sector, but a critical shortage of skilled people threatens to undercut the revival. That was the warning from Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, Commission Chief Executive of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission, who argues that a decade of slumping investment has hollowed out the country’s bench of geoscientists, petroleum engineers, and other technical specialists.

Speaking at the Oil and Gas Trainers Association of Nigeria’s Human Capacity Development Conference and Expo at the Petroleum Training Institute in Effurun, Delta State, Eyesan said training curricula must evolve to meet the demands of a rapidly changing industry. Nigeria, she cautioned, still trails where it needs to be on the skills required for the next phase of upstream activity.

From capex collapse to skills exodus

Annual oil and gas investment peaked at roughly $24 billion in 2014, then plunged to about $2 billion by 2023—a fall of more than 90 percent. That contraction did more than stall exploration and drilling; it triggered an exodus of expertise. Geoscientists were among the first to depart as exploration budgets were slashed. As the downturn deepened, petroleum engineers followed—some laid off, others shifted into maintenance and life-of-field roles as operators moved from expansion to survival.

Capital returns, capacity lags

Momentum is building again, aided by the Petroleum Industry Act and a run of pro-investment measures from the Tinubu administration. Notably, the Deep Offshore Oil and Gas Projects Incentives (Tax Remission) Order, signed on August 6, introduces production tax credits for qualifying deep offshore projects, improving economics for developments racing toward Final Investment Decision within a defined window.

That is welcome news for capital. The harder task is capacity. Eyesan warned that Nigeria risks hitting a new bottleneck if spending accelerates faster than the country can rebuild and upgrade the technical workforce needed to deliver complex upstream projects.

The new skillset: digital-first upstream

The challenge is not just headcount. The industry’s toolset has changed. Modern upstream projects rely on digitalized operations, digital twins, data-driven drilling, and advanced geoscience—capabilities that were not central to the curricula that shaped many of today’s professionals.

Success now depends on fusing subsurface data, real-time field information, automation, modeling, and analytics into both investment and operational decisions. That integrated approach reaches beyond traditional technical preparation and demands fluency with software, data, and systems engineering.

Blend technical depth with commercial fluency

Eyesan also urged a tighter connection between technical work and commercial outcomes. Capital, she noted, flows along the path of least resistance. To capture more value from the next wave of investment, Nigeria’s workforce must pair technical rigor with business awareness.

Engineers and geoscientists need a working grasp of costs, schedule risk, and value creation, while commercial teams must gain enough technical fluency to navigate increasingly complex projects. This two-way literacy was not always required; today, it is essential.

Build ahead of demand

Her broader prescription is a shift in posture—from reactive hiring to proactive capability building. Instead of training to fill vacancies already visible, the sector should forecast the skills it will need several years out and begin developing them now.

Eyesan called for deeper coordination among operators, regulators, training providers, and universities to construct a clearer pathway from education to employment. The aim is to anticipate changes in upstream technology, project delivery, market conditions, and operating practices—rather than chasing them after shortages emerge.

What stakeholders can do now

• Modernize curricula to embed digital workflows: data management, AI/ML for subsurface interpretation, automation and control systems, and cyber-physical safety.
• Scale co-op placements and apprenticeships that expose students and early-career hires to live assets and real-time decision-making.
• Offer modular reskilling for mid-career professionals focused on digital drilling, production optimization, integrity management, and project economics.
• Link training incentives to industry outcomes with measurable placement rates and competency benchmarks.
• Develop joint research and field pilots to convert emerging technologies into deployable practice.

If Nigeria can synchronize the return of capital with a renewed, future-ready talent base, the sector’s rebound could translate into sustained production, safer and more efficient operations, and stronger value capture. If not, the recovery risks stalling on a familiar constraint: too few of the right people, in the right roles, at the right time.