AI May Wipe Out Half of White-Collar Jobs Within One to Five Years
As the era of artificial intelligence advances, it is increasingly dominating discussions about the future of work, job security, and economic transformation. Concerns about AI-driven mass unemployment may be prolific, but according to a top executive at global recruiting firm ManpowerGroup, these anxieties might be premature.
The conversation gained momentum during the recent Vivatech trade fair in Paris, where ManpowerGroup shared insights into the evolving job market in light of AI’s maturation. Notably, a startling vision of AI’s impact was shared: technology could potentially eliminate half of entry-level white-collar jobs within the next five years.
At Vivatech, an intriguing startup contest hosted by the world’s third-largest staffing company brought innovative solutions to the fore, including technologies that hire customizable autonomous AI “agents” to perform tasks usually completed by human employees. This echoes the concerns raised earlier by Dario Amodei, head of AI company Anthropic, regarding AI’s potential to reshape job landscapes extensively.
Nevertheless, Tomas Chamorro-Premuzic, Chief Innovation Officer at ManpowerGroup, suggests a larger historical perspective is necessary. “If history shows us one thing, it’s most of these forecasts are wrong,” Chamorro-Premuzic reassures. Despite the specter of transformation looming large, the company’s core business remains deeply entwined with human labor rather than AI substitutes, at least for the foreseeable future.
However, this does not negate the impact AI is already beginning to have on various sectors. An International Labour Organisation (ILO) report recently highlighted that around a quarter of workers worldwide are in occupations with varying degrees of exposure to capabilities of generative AI models. While few jobs face the threat of full automation today, improvements and rapid expansions in AI capabilities since the ILO’s previous study in 2023 are undeniable.
These advancements include developing “agentic” models—ones more adept at acting autonomously or semi-autonomously and utilizing tools like web browsers and emails. Such capabilities indicate that the landscape of occupations will continue to evolve, pressuring individuals and organizations to adapt.
Chamorro-Premuzic also notes a key opportunity presented by AI: enhanced efficiency. AI tools could significantly reduce the time knowledge workers spend on routine tasks. “If what happens is that AI helps knowledge workers save 30, 40, maybe 50 percent of their time, but that time is then wasted on social media, that’s not an increase in net output,” he warns. Instead, the challenge and opportunity lie in how this saved time is effectively redirected.
As AI continues to develop, the workforce must adapt, cultivating skills that complement technological advancements rather than compete against them. The potential redistribution of time and tasks is a double-edged sword, offering chances for creative growth, upskilling, and productivity improvements, while also posing threats to traditional job structures.
The future workplace envisions a synergistic relationship between AI and human skills—where technology amplifies human potential. As such, it prompts a paradigm shift in how both employees and employers approach work.
In this nascent phase of AI integration, businesses and individuals should remain vigilant and innovative, adopting AI advancements harmoniously while preparing for the adjustments they necessitate. The conversation about AI’s role in shaping the future of work is a complex one—one that undoubtedly demands active participation and forward-thinking strategies from all stakeholders involved.
The extent and speed at which AI technology will impact white-collar industries remain a subject of debate. While predictions of AI replacing massive segments of the workforce may be seen as exaggerated, it is clear that the evolving nature of AI will inevitably lead to a reevaluation of needed skills, job roles, and the very definition of white-collar work as we know it.
The human workforce, resilient and adaptable, has consistently demonstrated the ability to adjust to new paradigms throughout history, from the industrial revolution to the digital age. As AI becomes an integral part of business operations, it is likely that workers will once again rise to the occasion, reinventing roles and finding innovative ways to add value alongside intelligent machines.
Ultimately, while the roadmap to an AI-driven future may remain uncertain, one thing is clear: adaptation, continuous learning, and an openness to change will be the cornerstones of thriving in this evolving landscape.
